hard Brexit

An offcut from the Story Kettle

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Copyright © 2017-2018, Michael M Wayman

The Guardian on Brexit – If Britain were truly to walk out with no accord at all, planes would be grounded, and customs paperwork would increase fivefold – instantly leading to endless queues and gridlocked roads at the ports, and fresh produce rotting on the Dover dockside. Prices would rocket, supply chains would collapse, and everyone would be worse off. It's worth studying the detail: it's all bad.   Jonathan Freedland on Brexit and 20-mile permanent traffic jam

EU on Brexit – Our main finding is that the available studies largely agree that Brexit will inflict losses on both sides. All studies agree that the losses will be considerably larger for the UK than for the EU27. Only in very pessimistic scenarios would the losses for the EU27 reach a significant size.   An Assessment of the Economic Impact of Brexit on the EU27

Analysis by Cambridge Econometrics commissioned by the mayor of London – The worst of the five scenarios modelled – departure in March 2019 with no deal or transition arrangements – would lead to 482,000 fewer jobs across the entire UK and a loss of £46.8bn in investment by 2030, the report says.   Analysis by Cambridge Econometrics and The Guardian article

Analysis by The Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics – And once we include the long-run effects of Brexit on productivity, the decline in income increases to between 6.3% and 9.5% (about £4,200 to £6,400 per householdper year).   The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards and Life after Brexit: What are the UK's options outside the European Union?

The Leave Alliance – [claims to be] the only campaign to have produced a workable comprehensive plan. [Its] recommendation is to leave via the EEA.   No deal is not an option.

Commentator fatfox – If Machiavellianism is conning your rival (usually an enemy) into shooting himself in the foot, Michaelgoveianism is standing on the foot of your rival (usually a friend) to stop him moving it, shooting, and belatedly realising that the bullet has had to pass through your own foot to get to his.

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